Hint of normal rains in most parts of India, barring Maharashtra

PUNE: Good news for India as a whole, but not so good for parts of Maharashtra. The latest South Asian Climate Outlook Forum on Tuesday predicted a normal monsoon in most parts of India barring the west coast of peninsular India, including parts of the state and northern parts of central India.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-14) held in Kathmandu in Nepal from April 18-23 released its consensus statement on Tuesday.It stated that most parts of south Asia, including India, are likely to experience normal rainfall during the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September).
The consensus statement, however, stated that below-normal rainfall was likely over some areas of southern Pakistan, some areas along the west coast of peninsular India, northern parts of central India and some areas of north-eastern part of the region. It indicated normal rainfall over remaining areas.
The below-normal monsoon is likely in parts of Maharashtra, especially the Konkan coast and adjoining regions, as was indicated by the map in the report.
The consensus-based probability forecast map, prepared based on model forecasts at global as well as national levels, showed the probability of the most likely category (below normal, near normal and above normal) for the 2019 southwest monsoon rainfall over south Asia. The map showed around 40% probability of a below-normal monsoon over parts of Maharashtra, especially the coast.
The outlook said there was a strong consensus among the experts about the possibility of further weakening of the prevailing weak El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific during the later part of the southwest monsoon season and thereafter.
The outlook also suggested that most parts of south Asia were likely to experience normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year. It said that some northern parts of the region, eastern coastal areas of peninsular India, Sri Lanka, southern parts of Myanmar, and most parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands were likely to experience above-normal rainfall.